One of the key tenets of modern medicine is to develop treatments based on collected evidence rather than intuition. While the very best physicians do have a streak of intuition this is based on experience and data (sometimes accumulated subconsciously). Publishing can be a pretty intuitive business. What market research would have identified Eat, Shoots and Leaves? However, there is always a place for reviewing the outcomes of publishing initiatives.

A couple of years ago we announced the formation of Macmillan Science, an experiment in non-fiction publishing. The idea was to publish popular science books globally and simultaneously in the key English-language markets. Authors would receive no advance but royalties would be based on publisher's receipts rather than retail price (as retail price is completely variable) at a higher than normal rate. We would not anticipate high subscriptions for the books because this might lead to high returns from booksellers. Our print runs were intended to be conservative with reprints the norm rather than the exception. We used our academic rather than our trade sales forces in general. The books would be supported by promotions in our various science-related journals and websites including Nature and Scientific American. And perhaps most importantly the person publishing the books is a specialist in scientific journalism and comunication rather than an all-rounder general editor.

So here's the evidence so far from the publisher, Sara Abdulla:

'Of the 13 hardbacks and 3 paperbacks we’ve published to date, one is currently longlisted for the Guardian First Book Award (Lonesome George) and one is currently shortlisted for the Times Higher Academic Author of the Year Award (Climate Change Begins At Home). One of the launch titles was longlisted for the 2005 Royal Society Aventis Prize (Venomous Earth) and another was shortlisted for the 2005 Medical Journalists Association Open Book Award (Whole Story). I was shortlisted for the 2005 Booktrust Kim Scott Walwyn Women In Publishing Award at the end of the first full year of publishing. One of these days, fingers crossed, the list will actually win something!

Our tenacious global Palgrave Macmillan sales and marketing force has sold 60,000 hardbacks to date and 6000 paperbacks (these are only just coming through now). The bestseller (The Science Of the Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy) moved 12,426 hardbacks. Average hardback sales are now 4,443 per title. Thanks to our amazing rights folks, we have 11 translation deals, two extract deals, 7 bookclub deals, two film options, two TV adaptations and a museum exploitation rights arrangement.

Macmillan Science books have received more than 140 great reviews to date, appearing regularly in Guardian, THES, BBC Radio 4, NewScientist, Discover, Focus, Seed Magazine, Booklist and innumerable specialist journals. MacmillanScience authors have done at least 125 events at venues including Hay Festival, Edinburgh Literary Festival, Chichester Science Festival, British Library and the Royal Institution. There have been at least 170 print, online and email adverts for the titles in Scientific American and in Nature journals. A couple of authors are now writing for Macmillan Children’s and several are preparing their second books for Macmillan Science. I haven’t signed up any existing popsci stars, I admit, but I think I’ve found a couple!

The main strategic focus now is to offer the books in flexible digital formats via BookStore. Obviously, we also need to keep signing up kickass authors, especially in the US — sales there really pick up when we give them some home-grown talent. UK sales are modest, given the strength and breadth of the books’ critical reception, but they are creeping up now that the list is more of a known quantity to the force, Amazon and the high street. Hardback EU/ROW sales are sluggish too, but giving these territories more paperbacks helps.

So all in all, I’d say our high royalty/no advance/all rights experiment is working — at least for popular science. And plenty more great books to come.'

A little while back I highlighted a piece in Nature about the plight of the Bulgarian nurses and the Palestinian doctor under threat of death in Tripoli. The story has moved on and there is an excellent piece in yesterday's Times about the efforts of scientists to show that the defendants are clearly innocent. Gaddafi is using the defendants as hostages to obtain $6billion and the release of one of the Lockerbie bombers. The article concludes:

'What matters, of course, is the science; Libya will not allow it into the courtroom. Without it, a murderous miscarriage of justice remains a dreadful possibility.'

On a happier note, Julia Donaldson, the author of my favourite book of the decade The Gruffalo is touring Southern Britain. If you have kids (or if you don't) do try to see her at one of her events. And if you haven't yet met the beast get a copy of the original for yourself and enjoy.

If you're in London you might also like to pop in to Chris Beetles Gallery where he is showing a marvellous exhibition of the works of Ronald Searle, famous for St. Trinian's School illustrations. as I mentioned before, he has also illustrated a special gift edition of Jeffrey Archer's Cat O'Nine Tails. All the original drawings have already been sold on the first day to to a single customer (not Jeffrey). I can't resist showing a typical picture of life in a Macmillan office.

And Macmillan is celebrating a number one bestseller in hardback fiction with James Herbert's latest, The Secret of Crickley Hall. Worldwide the Pan Macmillan teams are gearing up for plenty more number ones in the run-up to Christmas.

At some point in the 1970s there was a Christmas party where the hosts served mulled wine in their flat in Woodstock near Blenheim Palace.

Unfortunately the wine was left to mull for so long that the desired level of intoxication for a successful Christmas party was not achieved. There was a drift to a local pub where several of the partygoers discovered that they shared a common passion for poker. Thus began the first of the publishing investment committee meetings. They still happen.

The cast of characters has changed over the years and I won't list them in full for fear of legal action but perhaps the first names and descriptor may help identification for those versed in the history of British publishing:

Alan (lexicographer), Simon (academic marketing), Jon (international sales), Iradj ( academic publisher), Ivon (managing director), Marshall (educational software), David (legal sales), Stephen (ELT sales), Tim He (author), Adam (philosophy editor), Robert (history editor), Tim H (medical publisher), Tony J (accountant), Anton (actor), David C (academic publisher), Bob C (science publisher), Mike (science and legal publisher), Denis (IT inventor), Andrew S (textbook editor), John D (editor) and many others. A clue - there are three current members of the Publishers Association Council in this list.

Having set the scene I can now share with you the confidential minutes of one of the early meetings as supplied by the Secretary to the Investment Committee:

An Episode of Asquith

Polstead Road, Oxford, Friday, 3 November 1978, 11 pm. Fog.

      A light is dimly visible from the basement window of a large house. The house is otherwise dark. You make your way through the rhododendrons and crouch to look in. To the left you see a heavy Victorian press, its top crowded with bottles. Beside it seven men are gathered round an oval mahogany table that fills most of the room. Each appears to be taking turns at throwing notes into a large pile of money in the centre of the table. There is a pause followed by loud groans. Long arms reach out to gather in the money. They belong to a lanky young man sitting opposite the window. He has a pipe dangling from one corner of his mouth and his features are half-hidden by a black hat tilted jauntily over his forehead.

      Time to go in.

      “Ah, there you are. Nice to see you. Glass of wine? Red OK? Squeeze in here between Washbag and Sharkfin. Need some change? Twenty OK? You know these reprobates? Richard, Simon, Jon, Bob, Alan, Adam. Right, it’s my choice of game I think. A round of Asquith?”

      “Oh not bloody Asquith, Ivon. Sue’s going to kill me as it is.”

      “It’s your choice next Richard. Does everyone know the rules? You don’t? Well, it’s basically two down three up pass the card eights wild high low two changes the first free the second the last bet for an up card and twice for a down. You'll soon get the hang of it. It’s your deal. Don’t forget the ante. Just a fiver at this stage. Oops, no, deal one card at a time. Sorry, yes I'm afraid it’s double for a misdeal. Try again. Well done. Try to keep your voices down Simon and Bob. The landlady’s asleep on the next floor.”

      By the last round of the hand everyone has dropped out except Ivon and Adam. Ivon is now showing a five, a two, and a wild eight. Adam shows a six and an ace, and also has an eight. They appear to be going low. It is Ivon’s bet.

      “I think I’ll pass.”

      Adam opens his wallet and takes out two ten pound notes.

      “Twenty.”

      There is a long pause while Ivon scrutinizes his cards.

      “I’m not sure I believe you. You’ve got a dirty hole. Your twenty and raise you thirty.”

      “O.K. Asquith, just this once I’ll be kind. Your thirty and see you.”

      “Damn. All right then. Under the table.”

      Both take two coins and put their hands under the table. A few minutes pass.           “Get on with it you two can’t you?”

      Eventually each extends one clenched fist across the table and at the same moment they open their hands with a flourish. There is a single coin on both outstretched palms.

      “Good grief. Going high. Hard luck Ivon. Nice try.”

      Adam flips over his two down cards to show an ace and a six.

      “Full house. Aces on sixes.”

      “Oh well done Adam. What a fantastic concealed high.” Ivon turns over his cards. He has an eight and a five. “But I seem to have four fives. What jolly hard luck.”

      Later...

      “You’ve all got to go? So soon? It’s only 3.30. OK who wants notes for coins? Noone has any coins? Yes, I do seem to have rather a lot. I’ll keep them as change for the next meeting, and what about the next? 24th? and what about a pre-Christmas game on 22nd December? Thanks Bob, I did do reasonably well this evening. Luck of the cards.” He takes out a slim black book. “I’ll just note down the total. Oh Jon, I’ve got an IOU here for £30.”

      “I haven’t got £30, Ivon. How’s your hifi?

      “I haven’t got a hifi.”

      “Have mine.”

      “Does it work?”

      “Yes.”

      “OK.”

      “I’ll bring it to the next meeting. I don’t know why I bother. You’ll just fleece me again.”

      “Nonsense. You won last time. OK chaps see you soon. Could you see yourselves orff quietly please? The landlady sleeps.”

Roger Phillips is one of Pan Macmillan's most successful authors/photographers with a number of books on gardening and plants. His latest book on mushrooms arrived on my desk a couple of weeks ago just in time for the height of the mushrooming season. It is beautiful as well as scientifically accurate and will sell very well indeed, I think. However, it caused me to check what progress Roger had made in converting his expertise to the Internet. We have had on-and-off discussions about what to do over the years. Here's the link to the mushroom site and to the Roses one. I'm meeting Roger soon to discuss web trends and how to 'monetise' ( I hate that word) his million visitors a year. I thought readers of this blog might like to see how traditional books and photos can be transformed into wonderful websites with a bit of imagination and web intelligence. Also I'd appreciate any thoughts for improvements which I can pass on to Roger. For those who can't be bothered to click through here are some mushrooms to whet the appetite (but I bet some of these are not to be eaten).

Just back from Munich which is one of my favourite cities.

It also has one of the most beautiful (and efficient) airports.

Amongst other things I was invited to a party at the Haus der Kunst to celebrate the 150th anniversary of the great publishing house of Langenscheidt. It's hard to describe exactly what it is that makes this sort of event in Germany so special - probably the fact that everything is done so well, the serious bits, the fun bits, the setting, the hosts and the guests. It was a great party.

If you read German (which I don't) you'll find this website invaluable. It started life in 1966 and is still going strong run by Christian von Zittwitz whom I met for the first time.

And today there will be great parties all over India to celebrate Diwali. I imagine the celebrations will be very different from the Bavarian ones of yesterday but no less enjoyable.

Next week I'm hoping to put together some words about Alan Maclean who worked for Pan and Macmillan for many years and died recently. For now I thought you might like to see a handsome picture of him.

A formal release of the recently published Palgrave Macmillan book Foreign Capital Inflows to China, India and the Caribbean , took place last week in New Delhi in the presence of the Indian Minister of Defence(and former Finance Minister), Mr. Pranab Mukherjee, in his private parliamentary offices.  Kalpana Shukla, General Manager of Palgrave Macmillan in India was in attendance along with co-authors, Dr. Arindam Banik and Dr. Pradip Baumik. We're hoping that the Minister will write a book for us now. Given India's fantastic growth and success the rest of the world has much to learn from his experiences. 

My friend, Nick Clee was editor of the The Bookseller magazine for several years, after Louis Baum (who got very irked at me once when we added an 'e' to Louis on the cover of his book), and before the incumbent Neill Denny. Nick has become a cookery author with Don't sweat the aubergine published by the small but growing and excellent Short Books. Nick has recently launched The sceptical cook blog. The recipes sound delicious and the advice soundly based on practical experience of an ordinary person. It also makes a change from book trade gossip.

The conference at the British Library yesterday seemed to go very well. The session I chaired was all about the archiving of electronica. If my email filing system is typical, a better descriptor would be chaotica a word already bagged by an electronic rock group. In any event I was reassured that every word uttered and every powerpoint shown yesterday will certainly be archived to the highest standards and I believe the BL is even archiving this blog for the delectation of future generations. Good luck to them.

I spent some happy hours yesterday with our children's books teams from Spain, Mexico, UK and US. It reminded me of the importance and vitality of that part of the publishing spectrum. Take a look at the Priddy Books website or Julia Donaldson's or Macmillan Children's Books. The interface between traditional educational publishing and children's books is blurring and we are publishing books to entertain children and help educate them too. This requires great authors and great publishing teams and across our group we are lucky enough to have both.

Another thing we've been developing is News at Nature which helps explain the latest research and scientific developments to a wider audience than pure scientists. In particular we now have a tradition of in-depth analyses of upcoming elections and the impact of various outcomes on science policy and hence our lives. For the next week or so we are making available a special on the US mid-term elections. Well worth a click.

This afternoon, as I mentioned a couple of days ago I'm chairing a conference session on collecting electronica. Here's the press release for the conference which is also being covered by BBC Radio 4 this morning.

Save our written heritage:

Making UK writers' archives  available to future generations

The Right Honourable Lord Chris Smith of Finsbury  and Poet Laureate Andrew Motion are  addressing an international conference at the British Library, Manuscripts Matter on 19 -20 October 2006 to discuss the importance of UK institutions acquiring the archives of living writers.

Increasingly, manuscripts of modern and contemporary UK authors are being sold abroad, despite the best endeavours of UK public institutions and funding bodies. Public institutions find themselves unable to compete with organisations abroad, primarily in the United States, in terms of readily available and accessible funds. The Working Group aims to ensure that authors know that UK funds may be made available if enough time is given and that they should approach UK libraries and archives to discuss the sale of their works.

The cultural benefits of retaining the archives of pre-eminent UK authors within the UK for research, educational and creative use are significant and wide-reaching. As well as national collections, regional and university libraries collect papers with local connections and international reputations. The acquisition of significant modern literary papers enhances the reputation of collecting institutions throughout the UK, raises their profile worldwide, and in turn encourages new writing as the nation is seen to value its writers.

Primary sources are increasingly valued to inspire young writers; there is no substitute for being able to consult manuscripts first-hand to gain an insight into the processes that created the most important modern works of literature.

This conference is an opportunity for authors, publishers, dealers, funders, academics and collecting institutions, and other experts to discuss a range of issues:

·         the perception and reality of UK markets,

·         the national funding position and tax incentives

·         the value of manuscripts as a research resource

·         developing a national and international policy for collection, preservation and access to archives both nationally and internationally

 Rt Hon Lord Smith of Finsbury said “Despite wishes of authors that their manuscripts are available to UK institutions, the financial allure of selling abroad is often too great as they depend on this income to continue writing. Living authors are not eligible for current tax incentives. Funders such as the HLF make a significant and valuable contribution, but the process can be lengthy in the face of international competition. “

 For further information or images from the collection, contact Catriona Finlayson at the British Library Press Office: 020 7412 7115 or Catriona.finlayson@bl.uk or Eileen Kinghan:

NOTES FOR EDITORS

The UK Literary Heritage Working Group was established in March 2005 to develop and implement a national strategy to benefit the UK cultural and intellectual environment by ensuring that archives of pre-eminent modern and contemporary authors are retained and made accessible to UK audiences. Led by Rt Hon Lord Smith of Finsbury, its members drawn from across the sector, including authors, publishers, dealers, funders, academics and collecting institutions, and other experts join as guests. It works with the Group for Literary Manuscripts and Archives (http://archives.li.man.ac.uk/glam/index.html), who are carrying out a survey into collection development policies throughout Britain and Ireland, are encouraging collaboration and making these policies more widely known. The activities of the Working Group focus on three main areas of concern

-        Funding available nationally, and the funding processes

-        Tax incentives to benefit living writers who sell papers to public institutions

-        Provision of guidelines for authors selling papers, on financial incentives currently available, and on appropriate collecting institutions.

In November 2005, the Working Group formally submitted two proposals to HM Treasury which, it believes, will encourage pre-eminent UK authors who are considering selling their literary archives to choose to approach UK institutions:

-        To extend the douceur arrangement with regard to inheritance and capital gains tax to income tax for living authors selling their papers to a designated UK public institution by private treaty

-        To extend the Acceptance in Lieu of tax scheme to living writers

These proposals, although of minimal cost to Treasury, would benefit intellectual and cultural life beyond literary heritage, as they would apply equally to the archives of contemporary historians, scientists, economists and political scientists. Support for the measures has also been found among these communities. No formal response has been received from HM Treasury. The working group continues to pursue the proposals.

The issues were raised during debates in the House of Lords on 13 December 2005 and on 24 July 2006 (^{http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld199900/ldhansrd/pdvn/lds05/text/51213-01.htm#51213-01_star0} and ^{http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld199900/ldhansrd/pdvn/lds06/text/60724-1052.htm#06072410000015.}).

It's been a while since I've written about our experimental model for discovering new fiction talent. Here's an update prepared with the help of the MNW team. Several things didn't go as planned. I wanted uniform jackets but was over-ruled. We didn't succeed in persuading Ryanair to lend us a plane in which to hold the launch party. None of the authors has won the Man Booker Prize or hit number one in the best-seller lists (yet) but neither has Jonny Geller's prediction - 'I don't think there's a hope in hell of this succeeding' - come about. Apologies for the varying typefaces/sizes below - I don't know what I did wrong.

This month sees the launch of the twelfth debut novel to be published under the New Writing imprint, Macmillan’s streamlined publishing scheme for first-time novelists. The imprint’s launch in April induced some unusually shrill denunciations from the broadsheet press – apparently, Macmillan was not only abdicating cultural responsibility but taking advantage of “vulnerable young authors” – but six months down the line, MNW has become established as part of Pan Macmillan's mainstream publishing operation, submissions continue to pour in from around the world (well over 5000 complete novels in the past year), and the list itself is going from strength to strength, with some excellent review coverage.

Some MNW titles have reprinted several times and have sold thousands in the UK market. A US distribution deal is to follow next year. Roger Morris (author of Taking Comfort) has – wisely or unwisely – published the contents of his first royalty statement on his blog. Audio, large print and translation rights have been sold in several titles; one is about to be optioned for film rights; and the German rights to a forthcoming title have just been sold for an advance which would have many established authors breaking out the champagne.

Highlights for 2007 include a crime debut by young Northern Ireland author Brian McGilloway. Borderlands (April) is set on and around the Irish border, and is the first in a projected series, “The Inspector Devlin Mysteries”. August 07 will see the publication of a novel which is already causing a buzz at Macmillan: The Great North Road, by former professional vocalist Annabel Doré, is a beautifully written literary saga set in post-war northern England.