This is being composed on the early flight to Stuttgart where I have a board meeting later today. I try not to make this blog too Macmillan-centric but for every rule there must be exceptions and this is one.

For those who don't already know we have two new main board directors, Julian Drinkall and Steven Inchcoombe. I won't bore you with reporting lines, structures and responsibilities. That'll come through the normal channels. What they will have to do is fill the enormous gap which will be left by the upcoming retirements of two of the most important people in the history of Macmillan, Geoff Todd and Mike Barnard. These are not household names in the British book trade like Gail or Gillon or Vicky or Caradoc (why are industry celebs by and large known by one name, like Pele or Fangio?) They have, however, contributed as much or more by being at the forefront of introducing modern management to the running of the business - in forecasting, in logistics, in production, in IT. Thank goodness they have also taught us the wisdom of planning ahead and we've allowed a sensible handover period to ensure continuity and the maintenance of Macmillan's culture.

On the publishing side of Macmillan there has never been greater activity. Just a few examples.

We're working literally 24/7 in London and Gurgaon putting the finishing touches to the prototype BookStore which we're launching at Frankfurt. This is an electronic storage and selling vehicle to help publishers and booksellers take advantage of digital information delivery without the risk of losing control of authors' copyright material.

Results are coming in from Spain where it seems we've had our most successful school season ever.

In Mexico our children's books have won more selections for the government school library project and this in spite of the appalling political nonsense going on there - road blocks, demos etc.

We've even managed to publish successfully in Zimbabwe!

At Palgrave Macmillan frantic activity working on two huge projects - the new complete edition of Shakespeare's works with the Royal Shakespeare Company and the new edition of the multi-volume and world-renowned Palgrave Dictionary of Economics.

In Oxford editors and designers are ploughing through the creation of some 500 new titles this year for markets as disparate as Nigeria, Egypt, Russia, and China.

We're working like mad turning our audio business based on CDs into a download business. We've built a podcasting studio in our London office.

At Pan Macmillan, our Picador imprint has a contender on the Booker Prize shortlist for the third year running (the remarkable Mother's Milk by Edward St Aubyn).  This is a tremendous feat, especially considering that we have won the prize for the past two years.  Fingers crossed for a hat trick.

At Nature it seems there's a new initiative every week.

Note to Macmillan people - if you'd like your achievements or initiatives listed send it in as a comment to this blog. Also, corrections welcome.

Note to non-Macmillan people - apologies if this is boring or show-offy but I am really proud of Macmillan and every now and again I want to tell people. Normal service will be resumed.

I know that many British independent booksellers feel that bigger publishers are ignoring them in the fight for shelf space in supermarkets and chain bookstores. There has been much debate in the comments part of this blog over the last few months and Macmillan has taken its share of criticism. I was pleased therefore to discover that we sponsored a Small Business Forum dinner in Bristol last week. Organised by The Booksellers Association, the SBFis a forum for independent booksellers to debate the issues affecting their businesses as well as sharing ideas to help then thrive. The evening event was attended by eighty independents together with Alison Penton Harper, Beth Webb, Kate Long and Clive James who made an extremely funny after-dinner speech. This is exactly the sort of event which supports independent bookselling and which helps authors and publishers understand the issues of bookselling today.

This week is full of budgeting for next year. It sometimes feels that we might as well simply slaughter a goat and hope for the best! Any other suggestions?

I quote from VSS Communications Industry Forecast just released.

Total spending on new, used and online books will increase 2.7 percent in 2006 to $21.88 billion. The rise of used books is expected to alter the spending pattern on consumer books in the years to come. Spending on used books is projected to grow at a 25.0 percent compound annual rate over the next five years, reaching $2.25 billion in 2010. Record-setting demand for Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, plus strong spending on titles related to the movie The Chronicles of Narnia, helped to boost total consumer spending on new books by 3.6 percent in 2005 to $20.48 billion. The used book market, limited primarily to small retail outlets, libraries and the neighborhood tag sales in the past, has become a more important factor in the consumer book market due to the Internet, jumping 25.0 percent in 2005 to $736.0 million. Used book spending pushed total spending on consumer books to $21.31 billion, a 4.4 percent increase over the 2004 level.  The Consumer Book publishing industry is forecast to have total spending in 2010 of $24.9 billion.

What this suggests is that spending on new books might actually decrease in real terms in the next five years with customers turning more and more to the second-hand market. This trend is already apparent in the college textbook market in the USA and is accelerating in Europe and elsewhere. Yet another challenge to how we do business in this changing world. What do you think?

On a more positive note my friends at the Pan Bookshop have launched their own blog.  All power to them.

I've always marvelled that anyone not brought up speaking English can make any sense of it. For instance, the noun 'return' has 19 separate meanings in the OED (the verb has a further 21) and many of these are further subdivided by nuance. One meaning is 'Pecuniary value resulting to one from the exercise of some trade or occupation' - in other words 'return' equals 'profit'. In the book trade 'return' has nothing to do with profit, it is all to do with loss. The distinguished writer and part-time publisher Susan Hill has agreed to guest a piece for this blog on that old adage ' Gone today here tomorrow' which plagues the book trade.

RETURNS

Probably I should be a better environmentalist. I recycle the bottles and don`t drive many miles a year. I use no air miles as I have no passport. We grow some fruit and vegetables. Otherwise, I tend to switch off when the talk contains too many words like environment, ecology, global and warming.

There is one thing which has been exercising me on several fronts lately – RETURNS, as in books and Sale or Return but the front which struck me especially today can be summed up by the word WASTE. Waste of fuel, waste of paper, waste of road miles, waste of resources, waste of time, waste of energy.

In no other retail business are there Returns except  for ‘returns of damaged goods.’  But in the book trade, everyone buys books on S or R. As a publisher, I preach to authors every time I take them on, that a sale is not a sale INTO a bookshop, it is only a sale when it goes OUT of the bookshop in the hands of a customer.  No one listens.

So let me tell you what has happened this week in this topsy-turvey, alice-in-wonderland world of publishing.

Earlier this year my company Long Barn Books, published a book. 2,000 copies were printed. The books came to me on a lorry on pallets. Waterstones did a scale-out from Head Office of some 1,400 copies. So parcels of books were packed into cartons and sealed with brow tape and labeled and send off to 160 odd stores around the country by courier. More van journeys.

The system of invoicing is quaint and involves a great waste of paper. I am obliged to put an invoice into each carton, and to send a copy of that invoice, a paper copy, to the Finance Department. They eventually pay me – though they do this via BACS, which at least saves some paper.

The books stay in the Waterstones stores for some 3 months. I then get a request to authorize Returns. I agree. This involves the sending of a single e-mail to which I reply. More efficiency.

During the ‘Returns Window’ cartons start to arrive back to me, on courier vans, with unsold copies of the book. The cartons contain requests for Credit. I have to pass these pieces of paper on to the Accounts Department. But a considerable number of the books are returned carelessly packed so that they come back to me bumped, cover-damaged or, worst of all, with 3 FOR 2 WATERSTONES stickers plastered over them. I refuse to give credit for these, which involves a bit of a battle and more paperwork.

I sent out some 1,400 copies and some 600 have come back. This is what I mean when I tell the author that they are not SOLD they have only been on offer.

This is waste enough. BUT there is worse. Out of approximately 40 branches which have returned books some fifteen have RE-ORDERED THE SAME TITLE, sometimes on the same day that the RETURNS were dispatched to me. They have Returned FIVE and re-ordered FOUR. So four books are sent back on their way via yet another van, traveling more miles, to the same shop. I have to process the paperwork for the returns and then raise new- paper – invoices for the new orders.

I was told there was no alternative though everyone realizes it is a nonsense, and a WASTE.

On environmental grounds alone, this is madness. Multiply those books to-ing and fro-ing by however many separate titles from however many publishers there are in the UK, at least twice a year – around the end of January (post-Christmas de-stocking) and around now (pre-Christmas de-stocking) and you see the waste involved.

I think the government should step in the outlaw this nonsensical and wasteful practice on environmental grounds alone.

And I never ever thought I would hear myself say anything like that.

Anyone who is in the least bit interested in the history of publishing will enjoy Tim Kitchen's brilliant First 25 years of Pan Books website. In particular, the covers are sensational. Here is one. The site has scores - all evocative.

Yesterday I encouraged you to bet on our two Man Booker longlist titles. The shortlist is now out and we are very sorry (and fed up) that Claire Messud has not made the cut. However, delighted that Mother's Milk by Edward St Aubyn is still in the running and his odds are shortening.

At the Global Information Summit yesterday in Amsterdam there was much talk of the competition between India and China for leadership in the 21st century. My trivial observation was that India's population will inevitably exceed China's because of its obsession with cricket where the highest score always wins. China's only hope is to take up cricket with immediate effect (and with great benefits to the Wisden Group).

And meanwhile Macmillan India has completely upgraded its very impressive website. We now employ twice as many people in India as in the UK or the USA.

A hundred delegates from the information industries have gathered here to network and listen to pearls of wisdom from the likes of Helen Alexander. I'm on a panel discussing opportunities in Asia which I suspect may descend (or elevate) to disagreements about the real (as opposed to the perceived) potential of China.

Very different from yesterday's UK library discussions which Susan Hill has commented on already. The argument is all about libraries but the underlying concern is about local government and freedom of expression.

Karen Christensen was passing and I persuaded her to write a few words:Richard said last night that the zeitgeist is anti-authoritarian, which means that these debates--whether about what libraries are for, or whether China is threat or opportunity--are just what people crave. I hope so, because I think only good can come of these hot discussions!

Statistic of the day - there are more Internet users in China than in the USA. In other words more than 200 million people.

And back in Britain the bookmaker William Hill has announced the odds for the forthcoming Man Booker prize. I remember Paul Hamlyn telling me that he moved a title from 20/1 to 4/1 by betting a mere $50. By coincidence the title went on to win which was typical of Paul's good fortune or canniness. In what is probably an appalling breach of blogiquette I have highlighted the two Picador titles in order to encourage you to bet on them, read them, and tell all your friends about them.

5/1 Sarah Waters - 'The Nightwatch',

5/1 David Mitchell - 'Black Swan Green', 

6/1 Peter Carey - 'A Love Story',

8/1 Andrew O'Hagan - 'Be Near Me',

10/1 Barry Unsworth - 'The Ruby In Her Naval',

10/1 Howard Jacobson - 'Kalooki Nights',

12/1 Clare Messud - 'The Emperor's Children',

12/1 Hisham Matar - 'In The Country Of Men',

12/1 Kiran Desai - 'The InheritanceOf Loss',

14/1 Edward St Aubyn - 'Mother's Milk,

14/1 Kate Grenville - 'The Secret River',

16/1 Naeem Murr - 'The Perfect Man,

16/1 Jon McGregor - 'So Many Ways To Begin',

16/1 Mary Lawson - 'The Other Side Of The Bridge',

16/1 M J Hyland - 'Carry Me Down,

20/1 Bar the rest

The things I do to keep this blog fresh! My PC at home didn't work this morning and so I drove to Reading University early and persuaded the helpful IT team to let me have use of one of their computers. Thanks Reading.

Last minute jitters before my speech as usual. Do you have to be controversial to be interesting? How many toes will I step on? Someone described my speech here would be like Joshua addressing the walls of Jericho. My biblical knowledge is too scant for me to understand fully what he meant but it sounds bad for me. More later if a) I survive and b) I can find a free computer terminal at Heathrow.

Incidentally here are the words of the British politician responsible for libraries, David Lammy. The bit I really like is his attack on self-appointed,unelected, unrepresentative groups. In other words he's sick of people who disagree with his vision. Aren't we all?

Books V Computers

Which brings me to another issue that is regularly kicked around in library circles. What are libraries for?

The Concise Oxford Dictionary describes a library as a “collection of books for use by the public …….or a similar collection of films, records, computer routines {sic}, etc”.

That’s a dry definition of course. What I really think libraries are about are people; both as individuals and as members of communities. And libraries are there to serve a multiplicity of people’s needs.

So I get heartily tired of self-appointed, un-elected, un-representative groups who dogmatically say that libraries are for this and not for that.

I love reading. Coming from a household where you could count the number of books on the figures of two hands, I celebrate libraries central mission of the promotion of the enjoyment of reading. Bookstart – great! Summer Reading Challenge – fantastic! Adult reading groups in public libraries – absolutely wonderful!

But libraries are not just about books. They never have been. And the digital resources at our disposal today have broadened immeasurably the kind of public services that they can provide.

Again, let’s look at this in a “House” context. The last time you wanted to check a reference in Hansard, did you wade through a 6 inch pile of paper copies? What you probably did is to search on a database capable of bringing up a series of matches in seconds. I repeat, why should the public want anything less efficient for their information needs.

Post script - I survived.

I had dinner last night with the editor-in-chief of Tagesspiegel, Berlin's leading newspaper. On searching for the link I came across this article. I met Joachim Fest when he came to London to promote his book about the last days of the Third Reich Inside Hitler's Bunker. He was a brilliant man, a brilliant historian and a brilliant writer. Amazingly, his entry in Wikipedia has already been updated.

At the dinner we were discussing the Natascha Kampusch TV interview and the widely held belief that no person could have been so composed after such an ordeal and that therefore this was not her but an actress. I suppose this falls into the conspiracy theory genre which includes the (non)moon landing, Elvis Presley is dead, Lady Diana was murdered but who knows...

Later today we have the first international sales conference of Macmillan Medical Communications, our newest publishing venture. Our first wave of launches are in Latin America, India, Japan, Spain, Turkey and Asia-Pacific. Our aim is to become the number one in this field within five years and the number one for quality from day one. I'll keep you up to date with our progress.