I quote from VSS Communications Industry Forecast just released.

Total spending on new, used and online books will increase 2.7 percent in 2006 to $21.88 billion. The rise of used books is expected to alter the spending pattern on consumer books in the years to come. Spending on used books is projected to grow at a 25.0 percent compound annual rate over the next five years, reaching $2.25 billion in 2010. Record-setting demand for Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, plus strong spending on titles related to the movie The Chronicles of Narnia, helped to boost total consumer spending on new books by 3.6 percent in 2005 to $20.48 billion. The used book market, limited primarily to small retail outlets, libraries and the neighborhood tag sales in the past, has become a more important factor in the consumer book market due to the Internet, jumping 25.0 percent in 2005 to $736.0 million. Used book spending pushed total spending on consumer books to $21.31 billion, a 4.4 percent increase over the 2004 level.  The Consumer Book publishing industry is forecast to have total spending in 2010 of $24.9 billion.

What this suggests is that spending on new books might actually decrease in real terms in the next five years with customers turning more and more to the second-hand market. This trend is already apparent in the college textbook market in the USA and is accelerating in Europe and elsewhere. Yet another challenge to how we do business in this changing world. What do you think?

On a more positive note my friends at the Pan Bookshop have launched their own blog.  All power to them.