I'm sure that friends and relatives of all those British service people killed and permanently incapacitated following UK's latest invasion of Iraq will not be giving much thought to this lightweight memoir.

Seldom has a senior politician left the seat of power with less credibility.

Harper Collins will no doubt be instructed by the aussie weasel to win this auction, not because they would have the slightest interest in publishing the dreck but rather to repay old favours on hehalf of Tony's "Uncle Rupert".

Surely something more important is happening in the Macmillan empire than to foist discussion about TB on your blog readers - perhaps not, because this is the silly season.

Clive, You're very grumpy this morning. Plenty of interesting things in the Macmillan businesses but the Blair memoirs will be occupying many people's minds right now too.

Richard

Do you think serial rights will be part of the auction? I understood there was a trend away from making those rights part of a publishing deal even before Alistair Campbell retained and didn't (much) exercise these rights.

Considering what a weasel Blair can be, I doubt there will be anything too revealing as it would also likely to be incriminating. Therefore the book is likely to be very dull and almost any advance over £20,000 is unlikely to be worth it. However I'd guess the winning auction will be about $5 million as the auction will be in the US and Murdoch will be paying. It might be more if the deal includes an exclusive interview on Fox TV, serial rights for News International etc.

Please confirm Macmillan in none of its guises will be bidding.

Matthew

You didnt mention the prize for getting this right.......

(1) $12M US. Crazy, but it all adds up and the breakdown is this: US$5M, UK$2.5 of which $1.8 is serialisation rights, $2.5M for RoW, $1M film and the rest on Ring tones, t-shirts, Tony mugs etc

(2) The winning bid will be $18M and that is crazily more than they are worth, but the world is getting crazier. Just enough to cover the house purchase.

(3) The winning publisher will be Harper Collins, with support from Mondadori (Mediaset) in Italy.

I claim my prize -- How about a free Writers Handbook

Matthew said: 'Please confirm Macmillan in none of its guises will be bidding.'
I'd say the opposite: I sincerely hope Macmillan is considering this very seriously and doing everything it can to find a way to put forward a bid that is both profitable and winnable. There's no doubt it will be a major book for the publishing industry. If it's done right, it was also be an extremely important book historically. Every major publishing company - including Macmillan - should be vying to get it if they think they can make the numbers work.

Where did he get the haircut?
Look at:
http://www.mulletsgalore.com

How much will they really reveal? How much is TB's future inexorably linked to those who he knows and needs to remain in with? The really interesting questions will likely be avoided as there's incredibly thin ice for him the skate over - Dr. Kelly, Lord Levy and WMD's come to the top of the mind.

As to how much will he get - well, more than they're worth, more than TB can recoup and more than the publisher will make.

How much they are worth - realistically in pure P/L terms - £250,000
How much will get them - £1.5 million

This all assumes serialization are kept out of the mix.

$7 will get them, they will go to HarperCollins and be serialised in the Times/Sunday Times.

It looks like HarperCollins will win if this survey is correct; the price will be somewhere between $3m and $18m; the real value somewhere between $40k and $12m. Shows what a tricky business this is.

To answer the specific question about serial rights, sometimes they're included, sometimes not. I imagine in this case they will be included.

I should add that I've had two anonymous proposals:

The first suggests that the top offer for world rights will be $2.7m but that rights will be split between Random House in the UK and Simon & Schuster in USA for a total of $3.5m

The second suggests that it's worth $3m but will go for $9m to HarperCollins.

This entry is absolutely fascinating - sincerely- I have learned a great deal about the process that I never understood.

For a Bookseller the parallel question is 'how much do you bid for a good site?' and I remember the days when one such book retailer placed an extraordinarily high bid for a unique location because he believed his competitor was offering a similar figure. In fact his competitor handed in an empty envelope -- and was far better off for doing so (and my story is of many years ago).

Of course the figures were nothing as high as these of which you write.

As a potential reader of the Blair tome, albeit small chance on that front, please let me say that I'd be interested in reading if I thought the recollections were honest and real. Anything less would result in "no sale"; even when remaindered.

As as a leader and PM he was a major disappointment. Since he left office, I suspect that my blood pressure has returned to near normal, but he certainly left a legacy that means that it shoots up when I venture outside my front door. And perhaps I haven't caught up with the Brown developments yet...

Political books need charisma in the author to sell. Alan Clark had it in bucket loads; hence the success of his diaries. Mo Mowlam had it too and I wish she'd brought us more while alive. (Such a sad ending to her life.) Clinton, whose "dealer" Blair has engaged for negotiating his memoirs may have been less than perfect, but he's another with charisma by the bucket load.

In my mind, Blair lost any sense of charisma (and reality of policy) shortly after moving in to No. 10. I think many others followed in that thought. By the time he left office, he was that raw brown meat you might see in the supermarket, cut price, on its last date for consumption, if you choose to take the risk.

I see millions in the offing here, when it comes to auction; but is it really worth it? Do readers really want to eat up his thoughts in office and beyond? His wife, even though she has tried immensely to turn the boat with a BBC documentary, remains more than blemished in the media and hence, public perception.

Campbell, his right hand man for many years has now brought out a diary, but this too is met with unfavourable reviews and comments.

So what of Tony, the now shy retiring violet who chooses to write a book about his experiences? Does anyone really care? More to the point, does anyone really trust what he says? (That one went out with the bath water a long time ago...)

Oh there's a market out there, Mr Charkin - but for Blair's thoughts I think it's severely limited. Be careful how you bid...

Crimeficreader
I always listen to the advice of commenters to this blog. I don't always take it. But I'm sure we'll be careful bidding for TB's memoirs....