You overestimate the sales of non-fiction.. i spoke to someone high up in one of your rival big firms who said that average for a hardback non-fiction serious biog or history was 400 !! Increasingly, the role of these books is not to be sold in bookshops it is to be reviewed at length in the TLS /Daily Telegraph .. which reviews are never read either except by the few people in the same field. Some of the worst offenders have been not the non-pop stars and footballers wives - it is the silly advances that are the offenders there - but the biographies costing 30 quid of deeply obscure historical figures. These are not true academic books which are different. These are the books someone wanting to write a biography has written by digging about in obscure archives until they find someone no one else has written about - yet.They are aimed at the short list for the Samuel Johnson prize. They have no future. Genuine academic works, as you know yourself, are marketed in quite other ways and will always sell in the expected numbers. Print on demand and on-line only is the way to go with these after the initial expected sale.
Non-fiction sells sometimes. If it is price at a tenner and catches on. Of course if there is a TV tie-in and it is written by David Attenborough, it sells. But publishers have only themselves to blame for desperatelly seeking ANYTHING. They are coming unstuck.
The other major offender is the bad second novel. Some young hopeful is hyped and given mega money for book 1, which may well work - not always - and then turns in a dud book 2. The advance has been so silly that it will never earn out anyway and after a dud 2nd the contract is dead in the water. It is fine to publish hopefuls. You do it. I do it. But not fine to throw silly money at them. Good for no one`s bottom line - let alone their souls.
There is a solution to the non-fiction problem. Less of it.

It's all too easy for even eager book buyers with an ample book budget to miss books they would have bought had they known about them.

I rarely watch TV but made an exception this week : the profile of Mary Renault on BBC 4 late at night. [Well, late for those of us who start work at 6 a.m.]

Since watching it, I've discovered that two biographies of Renault have been published. How many other fans of Renault missed them?

Anne Weale

As a bookshop proprietor who would source and sell mostly (quality) non-fiction titles I believe that some mega-publishers, and more than a few independents, should be prepared to discuss their future plans with the bookshops.

Nobody but the publishers have themselves to blame if a title "bombs" ; does the market exist for the title, is the title going to be promoted, how many proof copies are sent to the trade ? POS material which is often available months after launch (myself I generally don't use such "aids")

Over-priced biographies, £30 really is too much ; too much duplication in subject areas.

Too many books are issued at prices to allow for discounting rather than a realistic cover price : independent bookshops like mine are getting even more selective in the stock range which we carry. However, I am prepared to stock some new books even if they might not sell more than once in each 12 months : independent bookshops like mine deserve to be fostered (regional distributors already know the value of their dedicated local stockists).

Get some advance copies into the bookshops hands, clearly stamped review copy not for sale on the textblock, handselling is an art which is now being lost to the trade as merchandising becomes all powerful. Publishers might sell more books to the independents if we knew their future plans.

Richard, I think there are a couple of hints right in your post about some things that could be done:

1) “Failures are usually very expensive” – how do you decide to pursue a project? What constitutes a success? Are your measurements of success consistent with how the markets work? While you point out that “neither the up-market nor the mass market is performing”, the underlying issue is that their not performing as PUBLISHERS have grown to expect and rely on them to perform. What needs to change in the business model (great suggestion from Susan about print-on-demand and on-line options) for publishers to be successful the way they are performing now?

2) “…celebrity is demanding (and frequently getting) ludicrous advances from publishers…” – well they’re your partners in this endeavor, enlist them as such with the proper financial risk (and reward if something becomes a super success) or let them go to someone else.

3) “…desperate to find something to sell through supermarkets to the mass market.” Why? Not that I’m a huge baseball fan, but if you’re always swinging for the fences you’re going to strike out a lot!!! And the mass market may not even be the fence anymore.

4) “…publishers are spending big marketing budgets and granting special discounts to retailers…” Again – what about some niche focused products that rely on viral marketing? As many industries are learning, the mass market that warrants big marketing budgets isn’t even there anymore – why not focus (or at least experiment with focusing) marketing money on more viral campaigns. Get your fans to work with you.

Look at your blog. I don’t even know you and I want you to be successful and for your company to prosper. While blogging is only one method, there are many ways to get your customers invested in your products.

Thanks for your blog – I really do enjoy it!

Is it possible that the concern we have over lower non-fiction book sales has two important lessons for us. The first; publish fewer, better books and the second; Publishing companies are carrying too high overheads and need to be slimmer, smaller and more flexible operations?

If you look at what Jeff Jarvis is saying on his page today about how local newspapers are right to close foreign bureaus and concentrate talent on local reporting maybe publishers need to be slimming staff numbers and concentrating on commissioning better books with wider/better defined niche appeal. Equally if costs were lower then lower book sales would not be such an issue.

Whereas a book might now need 3,000 sales to be viable and profitable with fewer staff and less costs perhaps 400 will make it viable. An even better scenario would be that with fewer, better titles and fewer staff and overheads we could still sell 3,000 and make considerably more money enabling better marketing and allowing publishers more flexibility.

Certainly it seems to me that with the changes faced by publishers we cannot keep going the way we are going and expect to survive.

Eoin

Might I suggest that you are missing one pertinent point. Here in 2006 UK too great a % of the booktrade is factored around consignment merchandising.

It is all very well whining about lack of sales but if and when the publishers actually produce quality non-fiction and make a reasonable attempt to offer a sensible cover price, then the book will often sell in terrestial bookshops.

Those publishers who accept the principle of firm sale and make every attempt to ensure that the cover price is not super-inflated to give room for discounting by consignment vendors such as Amazon get assured sales. As for the rest, I really don't give a shit : let them wallow, or perhaps - as a sideline - they should open their own shops. If they opened shops then they might know a shade more about the range of non-fiction titles which discerning customers choose to read.

As for the example quoted : Richard, you really can't be serious that you expect me to stock such badly written dreck.

One branch of our non-fiction is a crucial contributor to the overall profitability of our business because by pure luck we have chanced upon a category (martial arts) which, on the whole, is poorly published (in terms of editorial focus and production values). As a publisher I like non-fiction because it tends to sell through off shelf rather than on promotion. These books tend to have a higher list price than our riskier paperback fiction. All in all we have a higher price, a lower discount and a more focused series brand to build.

It takes a long time to bring these books to market – 500 photos, heavy editing and time-consuming design and typesetting – but the quality resonates with enthusiastic readers. As ever, it's all about ensuring you publish high quality books in a market that is eager for them.

Whilst it does not necessarily address Richard's initial point about the discrepancy between UK and US audiences (which is interesting), I think the key thing, as others have pointed out, is that we have to adapt our business model, which is changing all the time. One of the most fascinating and important pieces of commercial non-fiction I've read recently - and you will excuse a short plug - is Chris Anderson's THE LONG TAIL (http://www.randomhouse.co.uk/catalog/book.htm?command=Search&db=main.txt&eqisbndata=184413850X).
It makes the very valid point that increasingly, with infinite availability of information, democratisation of access and production, anyone can find anything out there that suits their particular taste. The readers are out there for each and every book. What I suspect trade publishers are really struggling to come to terms with is that we need to talk to them in different media and almost in a new language: the best way to reach areas of specialist interest (and we all have 'niche' interests in some way or another) is not necessarily via the shelves of conventional bookshops.

I do disagree with the notion that it's all doom and gloom for serious non-fiction, though. The sales in paperback for books like A SHORT HISTORY OF NEARLY EVERYTHING, FREAKONOMICS, COLLAPSE and WATCHING THE ENGLIGH will, I think, bear me out.

As for THE LONG TAIL - I'll send you over a copy.

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