Sunday, September 17, 2006
Used books

I quote from VSS Communications Industry Forecast just released.

Total spending on new, used and online books will increase 2.7 percent in 2006 to $21.88 billion. The rise of used books is expected to alter the spending pattern on consumer books in the years to come. Spending on used books is projected to grow at a 25.0 percent compound annual rate over the next five years, reaching $2.25 billion in 2010. Record-setting demand for Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, plus strong spending on titles related to the movie The Chronicles of Narnia, helped to boost total consumer spending on new books by 3.6 percent in 2005 to $20.48 billion. The used book market, limited primarily to small retail outlets, libraries and the neighborhood tag sales in the past, has become a more important factor in the consumer book market due to the Internet, jumping 25.0 percent in 2005 to $736.0 million. Used book spending pushed total spending on consumer books to $21.31 billion, a 4.4 percent increase over the 2004 level.  The Consumer Book publishing industry is forecast to have total spending in 2010 of $24.9 billion.

What this suggests is that spending on new books might actually decrease in real terms in the next five years with customers turning more and more to the second-hand market. This trend is already apparent in the college textbook market in the USA and is accelerating in Europe and elsewhere. Yet another challenge to how we do business in this changing world. What do you think?

On a more positive note my friends at the Pan Bookshop have launched their own blog.  All power to them.

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9/17/2006 1:39:53 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)
Where do you want to start Richard.

The textbook market in the western world has greatly increased during the past twenty years as the poorer students have been enfranchised with admission to higher education ; higher volume new textbook sales, and higher % of used textbook sales per 100 new textbook sales, as the students from poorer family backgrounds need to try and get back some financial layout.

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The used book market is very fragmented and it is highly questionable whether the traditional secondhand bookshop as it was known thirty years ago will survive and prosper in the future.

The charity shops have taken the bottom end of the market in the UK, whilst in America mega-listing semi-charties are uploading millions of general used books onto the internet via auto-uploads from bar-code readers. The internet prices start at one penny with the lister making any profitable revenue from the packet post shipping contract (Amazon - for instance - will be taking a monthly listing fee, 15% commission and their cut from the shipping charge made to the customer)

New books being listed as "used" and sold on Amazon Marketplace by third-party sellers. This is a loophole which Amazon permits mainly because the third party income (MP listing fee, 15% commission, + cut of customer shipping charge) provides a large percentage of their annual profits.

Customers are encouraged by Amazon to buy and sell their books on Amazon. Most traditional secondhand bookshops would not purchase recently published titles since it was always felt that for most titles the buyer would not be there in the secondhand trade for a few decades after original publication. Highly collectable series such as New Naturalist titles would be an exception to the previous comment.

Many families, aged under 40, run minimalist lives : they do not keep many books shelved in their houses, they have lived in a land of plenty and grown accustomed to disposable purchases from their disposable income.

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As a small trader I just stock books - antiquarian, general secondhand, publishers 'bin ends' as well as new books. I reckon I know both my trade and the market

IMVHO, the market for new books is going to be decided by the state of the world economy and how much disposable income is available to customers. Many economists are predicting a general downturn in the US economy from around 2010.

It might interest readers to know that although the internet six years ago was very profitable for general secondhand bookdealers with a daily sale of one per thousand listed as the norm : sales for the dedicated dealer have taken a seriously backwards slide, and many who thought that they could make a good living from internet only are now facing the prospect of very hard times ahead.
Clive Keeble
9/28/2006 4:02:55 PM (GMT Standard Time, UTC+00:00)
Hello! interesting figures! I've seen related info on http://www.msn.com
Darvin